Mortgage Reports

Mortgage Rates Newsletter - Market Analysis

Daily Mortgage Rates Update Archive Description

Mortgage rates failed to extend yesterday's modest improvement, moving modestly higher by the end of the day. This takes the average lender very close to the long-term highs seen on October 5th. Indeed, prospective borrowers shouldn't be surprised to see the highest rates since early 2011. In and of itself, today wasn't too dramatic. We were already fairly close to these highs yesterday and, in general, have been holding in a fairly sideways pattern nearby for most of the month. As has been the case for more than 2 years, we are in a rising rate environment, and there's no compelling reason for an immediate change. That said, the higher rates go, the harder it will be for them to continue moving higher. Additionally, when rates are historically high, we tend to see more "false starts" that
Posted: October 20, 2018, 12:01 am
Mortgage rates recovered most of yesterday's losses today, following turmoil in European financial markets. What does Europe have to do with rates in the US? A lot, actually. In fact, Europe deserves credit for most of the glacial move toward lower rates seen from early 2014 through mid-2016, and was a key ingredient of the low rate environment in 2011-2012. More recently, Europe has been heading in a more American direction when it comes to monetary policy, and that's resulted in upward pressure on rates. Most recently, investors are having some doubts about Italy's willingness to play nice with EU rules. When that happens, investors seek safety in the core of the European bond market. In other words, they buy bonds from Germany and other safe-haven countries. While US bonds aren't high on
Posted: October 18, 2018, 9:03 pm
Mortgage rates moved higher at a quicker pace today, following the release of the Minutes from the most recent Fed meeting. But correlation isn't necessarily causality in this case. The Minutes provide a more detailed account of the Fed meeting that resulted in September's rate hike. That rate hike was foregone conclusion and the Fed has been a relative open book in the intervening 3 weeks. In other words, there wasn't bound to be much by way of surprises. Even so, investors are always looking for clues in this more robust snapshot of the Fed's decision-making process. As such, it has the potential to cause some market volatility . There was market volatility today--especially for bonds (which directly affect mortgage rates). It's debatable whether it was purely a function of the Fed. More
Posted: October 17, 2018, 11:03 pm
Mortgage rates didn't move much today. Some lenders were perfectly unchanged, but the average lender was just slightly higher. That's at odds with underlying bond market movement (which directly impacts rates)--at least at first glance. Specifically, the bonds underlying mortgages were slightly stronger today. That would imply slightly lower mortgage rates. So why did rates rise? As is often the case, today's seemingly paradoxical movement is due to timing . Bonds were weakening ever-so-slightly yesterday--something that's consistent with lenders raising rates. But the bond market didn't weaken enough for lenders to make those changes in the middle of the business day. Additionally, today's bond market improvement didn't really stick until the afternoon. Like yesterday, it wasn't quite enough
Posted: October 16, 2018, 8:29 pm
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, prolonging a 3-day trend of exceptionally light volatility. The 5 days before that (beginning on Wednesday, October 3rd) were completely different, with a huge move higher at first followed by a moderate recovery at the beginning of last week. That recovery largely followed the stock market weakness. Stocks and rates don't always move in the same direction, but when stocks fall as quickly as they did last week, rates usually benefit. After such moves level-off, rates tend to wait for stocks to see if there will be an aftershock or a big bounce. For now, it doesn't look like stocks have made up their mind yet, as they too have continued in a largely sideways pattern during the last 3 trading sessions. Loan Originator Perspective Bond markets
Posted: October 15, 2018, 9:32 pm