Mortgage Reports

Mortgage Rates Newsletter - Market Analysis

Daily Mortgage Rates Update Archive Description

Mortgage rates held on to their recent improvements today after the important Employment Situation (the big "jobs report") showed November job creation was lower than expected. In general, weaker job creation is good for interest rates because it speaks to slower economic growth and inflation (both of which are enemies of rates). This report was particularly important because a strong result would have cast doubt on several speeches from members of the Federal Reserve. Those speeches have warned about slower economic growth in 2019 and the potential for fewer rate hikes than previously anticipated. There were no clear winners or losers at first--probably because job creation is still historically solid. Additionally, the unemployment rate remained ultra low, and wage growth remained above 3
Posted: December 7, 2018, 9:22 pm
Mortgage rates dropped significantly yet again today, adding to an already impressive week of improvement and bringing most lenders into their best territory since September 13th, 2018. The average lender improved by more than an eighth of a percentage point in just the past 3 business days and by nearly 3/8ths of a point from the highs seen in early November. This comes out to roughly $70/month for a $300k loan, or an upfront savings of $4500 if you were to buy your rate down (paying points) back in early November. Much of the move has come courtesy of a rapid shift in expectations about the economy and Fed policy. Investors have been worrying about the longevity of the current economic cycle more and more as it ages. By some measures, this is already the longest economic expansion ever (and
Posted: December 6, 2018, 10:29 pm
Mortgage rates technically hit their lowest levels in exactly 2 months yesterday. Today merely takes them deeper into that territory. The size of the improvement is less impressive and less meaningful compared to that "lowest in more than 2 months" talking point. That said, taken in conjunction with the last 4 business days, the average lender is roughly an eighth of a percentage point lower. That comes out to $7/mo for every $100k financed (or $21/mo on a $300k loan). On a somewhat frustrating note, mortgage rates didn't experience nearly as big of a move as the broader bond market. For instance, 10yr Treasuries--the most widely-used benchmark for longer-term interest rates) dropped 0.05% today. Mortgages only managed to drop by 0.02% in terms of effective rates. The bigger improvement in
Posted: December 4, 2018, 10:53 pm
Mortgage rates didn't really improve today for the average lender, but they did manage to hit the lowest rates in 2 months on a technicality. The reason for this is simple. There was a big gap between the rates seen on October 2nd and October 3rd. Rates merely had to hold steady today in order to earn the "2-month" title. Despite the absence of mortgage rate movement, there were s ome encouraging developments behind the scenes. When it comes to rates, 'behind the scenes' refers to trading in the bond market, and bonds managed to scratch out a solid day after starting out on weaker footing. Typically, bonds need some inspiration for this sort of strength. That can come from weaker economic data, weakness in stocks or other related markets, and even from geopolitical drama. Today's strength,
Posted: December 3, 2018, 10:20 pm
Mortgage rates may have ebbed slightly higher today, but that only erased a fraction of the improvement seen over the past 2 days. Combined with the even stronger showing 2 weeks ago, this makes November the best month of 2018 in terms of mortgage rate improvement. All of the good times come with a price , however, as the first few days of the month saw rates move to their highest levels in more than 7 years. Nonetheless, anyone in the market to buy or refi has seen a meaningful improvement over the past 3 weeks. How meaningful is meaningful? Assuming a loan amount of $300,000, the average mortgage payment (30yr fixed, conventional) would be $45/mo lower this week vs last week, and $90/mo lower vs the beginning of the month. In terms of upfront costs (i.e. if you were paying points to keep
Posted: November 30, 2018, 8:37 pm