Mortgage Reports

Mortgage Rates Newsletter - Market Analysis

Daily Mortgage Rates Update Archive Description

Mortgage rates remained unchanged today, on average. This keeps them in line with their highest levels in more than a month, though admittedly, there hasn't been much upward movement since the sharpest leg of the spike ended last Wednesday. Conventional 30yr fixed rates in the "high 3's" remain available for top tier scenarios, but 4.0% is slightly more prevalent now. While there were several economic reports and seemingly important news stories today (both tend to have an effect on rates), bond markets marched to their own beat. Traders were generally getting in position for tomorrow's Fed Announcement. Two weeks ago, the order of the day had been to push rates lower heading into Hurricane Irma weekend. There's been a correction in play since then. From the long-term lows in early September
Posted: September 19, 2017, 9:32 pm
Mortgage rates resumed their recent uptrend today, after taking a quick break to end the week last Friday. The result is another push up to the highest levels in just over 3 weeks. The average scenario is being quoted rates that are about an eighth of a point higher compared to the lows seen in early September. The most prevalent top-tier conventional 30yr fixed rates still range from 3.875% to 4.0%, but the latter is increasingly in the spotlight. Context is important when it comes to this recent rate spike. The market movement that preceded it was arguably "too good," with rates benefiting from an unusual combination of geopolitical risk surrounding North Korea and event risk surrounding Hurricane's Harvey and Irma. It's not that markets responded to those events in unexpected ways--simply
Posted: September 18, 2017, 8:49 pm
Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower on average today, confirming the end of a somewhat abrupt correction from last week's 2017 lows. In other words, rates rose quickly during the first days of the week and spent the last 3 days leveling off. To put "abrupt" in context and reiterate yesterday's thoughts, the worst case scenario would be an eighth of a percentage point higher in rate from last week. That's $14/month on a $200k loan. We've certainly seen worse weeks day, but only 2 of them were in 2017. The flat momentum at the end of this week isn't too likely to stick around next week. The Fed will (probably) make a landmark announcement that confirms the start of its balance sheet reduction efforts. This means slightly less bond-buying each month, and could put upward pressure on rates
Posted: September 15, 2017, 9:09 pm
Mortgage rates moved higher today, despite resilience in underlying bond markets. If you were to ask bonds, they'd vote for rates remaining flat--well, sort of. There is a timing issue that I brought to your attention yesterday where mortgage lenders had yet to adjust for yesterday afternoon's bond market weakness (weaker bonds = higher rates) and were thus more likely to start today with higher rates, all other things being equal. That's exactly what happened. And while it does mean that rates are higher than they were yesterday, we're actually seeing some supportive cues in bond market for the first time all week. Specifically, bonds have held fairly steady today--something they've had a hard time with recently. It's early to say for sure, but this could be the first sign that this week's
Posted: September 14, 2017, 9:09 pm
Mortgage rates continued higher at a reasonably abrupt pace today as last week's themes have been completely reversed. What themes are those? Generally speaking, markets were undergoing a risk-aversion trade given the rising geopolitical tension surrounding North Korea and the economic uncertainty associated with back-to-back hurricanes. Risk aversion tends to take the form of investors seeking safer haven assets like bonds at the expense of higher growth potential assets like stocks. Indeed, stocks had stumbled sideways to slightly lower last week while bond prices rose (higher bond prices = lower rates). Now that dynamic is reversing with stocks breaking to new all-time highs while bond prices move lower (lower bond prices = higher rates). In the bigger picture, the damage is still far from
Posted: September 12, 2017, 8:42 pm