Mortgage Reports

Mortgage Rates Newsletter - Market Analysis

Daily Mortgage Rates Update Archive Description

Mortgage rates didn't have a great day today, moving even higher from what were already the worst levels in a month as of yesterday afternoon. In and of itself, this single day wasn't any more dramatic than the average "bad day," but taken together with the past 3 days and the assessment is more grim. Simply put, this is now the worst week for mortgage rates since the 2016 presidential election. If that seems way too depressing, don't worry, I have a counterpoint for you! Each of the 3 weeks before that saw at least one day of mortgage rates at their lowest levels in 3 years. These also happened to be 3 of the most stable weeks that rates have ever enjoyed when holding so close to long-term lows. The typical pattern is for a quick run down followed by a similarly quick jump back up. For instance
Posted: September 12, 2019, 10:17 pm
Mortgage rates were roughly unchanged today for the average lender as underlying bond markets finally calmed down. Over the past few days, bond yields have been rising quickly, effectively correcting from the lowest levels in more than 3 years. The same is true for mortgage rates with the average conventional 30yr fixed quote hitting 1-month highs yesterday and holding in the same territory today. One school of thought behind the recent rate drama is that the bond market is apprehensive about upcoming central bank policy announcements, both from Europe (ECB) and the US (the Fed). The ECB announcement is tomorrow morning, so it could make some sense to see bonds level-off in advance of the first central bank flashpoint. This means there's high potential for volatility tomorrow, but the Fed announcement
Posted: September 11, 2019, 9:32 pm
Mortgage rates and the broader bond market are both in the midst of a correction after hitting the best levels in more than 3 years last week. This is a correction that many market watchers were worried about on several occasions in August. But every time it looked like rates had bottomed, it only took a few days of indecision before they were again pressing into new long-term lows. This most recent break from long-term lows has been far more threatening with 2 of the past 4 business days bringing the biggest single-day jumps in several months. As a result, the average lender is now back to offering rates last seen in early August. Notably, a conventional 30yr fixed rate of 3.75% is right in the neighborhood of what many borrowers would be quoted today. That said, for many lenders 3.75% makes
Posted: September 10, 2019, 10:18 pm
Mortgage rates held steady today, which is a victory in light of yesterday's big jump higher. Part of that jump was due to fear that today's jobs report would strike a similar tone to some of this week's other economic reports. That would have been a problem for rates because stronger economic data pushes rates higher, all other things being equal. But the jobs report was merely "OK," at best, with the overall tally of newly created jobs coming in at 130k. That was well short of the 158k forecast, but also well within the margin of error for the data. In response, the bond market (which underlies mortgage rates) managed to make it back to unchanged levels on the day. Before the jobs report, it was indicating another move toward higher rates. In the bigger picture, yesterday's big jump doesn
Posted: September 6, 2019, 9:40 pm
Mortgage rates walked back a decent chunk of their recent improvements today. This claim runs counter to almost any other coverage you'll see, but I'm right and they're wrong. Actually to be fair, I'm right in a timely way and they're right in a not-so-timely way. At issue is the weekly release of Freddie Mac's mortgage rate survey, which only captures responses from the first half of any given week. Big market movement from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning is never represented in the Thursday release. Despite that, media outlets rely heavily on Freddie's data to craft their customary once-a-week mortgage rate pieces. Today's examples include multiple iterations of "the lowest rates in 3 years," etc. It's true that rates were at their lowest levels in 3 years, but it was only true
Posted: September 5, 2019, 8:35 pm