Mortgage Reports

Mortgage Rates Newsletter - Market Analysis

Daily Mortgage Rates Update Archive Description

Mortgage rates WISH they were still at 2.97%--the number conveyed today by Freddie Mac's weekly survey. Freddie's data is accurate when it comes to capturing broad trends over time, but can really fall short when the bond market is experiencing elevated volatility. To say that bond market volatility has been elevated recently is an understatement of extreme proportions. Things are happening that haven't happened in years . Some measures of volatility rival the March 2020 panic surrounding covid, only this time, there's no catalyst other than the market movement itself. Today was by far the worst of the bunch when it comes to this most recent spate of volatility. Most any mortgage lender added another eighth of a percent to their 30yr fixed rate offerings. Over the course of the past week, most
Posted: February 25, 2021, 10:46 pm
As of today, you'd have to go back to June 2020 to see higher mortgage rates. This is courtesy of an ongoing move in the bond market that has longer-term rates/yields surging higher at the quickest pace since the pandemic began. The broader bond market has actually been signalling this sort of move since late last summer, but it wasn't an issue for mortgage rates for a variety of reasons. Now that the mortgage market has mostly exhausted its protective cushion against broader bond market volatility, when the broader bond market has a bad day, so do we. It goes without saying that today was bad. Just look at the scoreboard , after all. But it also tried to be good. Bonds battled back from their worst levels quite well by the early afternoon. This was especially true for mortgage-backed bonds
Posted: February 24, 2021, 10:17 pm
There are still 4 business days left in the month of February and thus still 4 days for the bond market to undergo an epic recovery that helps mortgage rates come back down. But traders and market-watchers alike have pined for--if not outright expected--such a recovery several times in the past few weeks only to be disappointed . Merely avoiding additional rate spikes would be a victory at this point. Even if we can manage to avoid further rate spikes, February will still go down as the worst month for rates since January 2018 (March 2020 was worse at face value, but it's not really a fair comparison due to the unprecedented bond market reaction to the pandemic). Some back-of-the-napkin math (OK, it's actually more official than that) shows the average lender charging at least a quarter of
Posted: February 22, 2021, 11:50 pm
There's no precedent for the winning streak enjoyed by mortgage rates in the 2nd half of 2020. We've never seen so many new record lows in the same year, and we never spent as much time at those lows (not even close). All of the above makes it easy to get lulled into a false sense of low-rate security, but it's time to wake up. Actually, the alarm has been going off for a while now. Previous posts pointed out the disconnect between the bond market and mortgage rates on multiple occasions in 2020. Near the end of the year, we warned against complacency in no unspecific terms . Following the Georgia senate election, we've been tracking a surge in bond market volatility based on the expectation that it would increasingly spill over to the mortgage rate world. ( Read More: 1/8/21: Have We Seen
Posted: February 19, 2021, 10:59 pm
Volatility has returned to the mortgage market in grand fashion this week with many lenders quoting rates that are as much as a quarter of a point higher than they were last week. That means if you were looking at something in the 2.75% neighborhood on Friday, it could be 3.0% today. What gives? The upward pressure is nothing new , really. It has existed in the broader bond market since August, but only recently began spilling over to the mortgage market. We've been discussing the increased risks of such a spillover in the event of a sharper bond market move and yesterday brought just such a move. Today was much more docile by comparison, but it didn't do anything heroic to push back against yesterday's weakness. Still, there could be some promise of stability in the fact that the bond market
Posted: February 17, 2021, 9:33 pm